Celtic will face Bayern Munich in their first Champions League knockout match in 12 years when the German giants visit Glasgow this Wednesday night.
The new format in the competition worked wonders for Celtic, but not for Bayern, who could fail to reach the last 16 for the first time in over 20 years.
As the Champions League nears its crucial stages, Bayern are already at risk of making unwanted history after a disappointing start to their European campaign.
Bayern have lost three away games in the group stage this season, and if they lose another on the road, it will mark the first time in club history they’ve lost four away games in a single European campaign.
A tough loss to Aston Villa, followed by heavy defeats at Barcelona and Feyenoord, meant Bayern missed out on the top eight and automatic progression to the last 16, despite a perfect home record.
The Bavarians have reached the last 16 in 16 consecutive Champions League campaigns, with their only previous failure being in 2002 when they were knocked out at the group stage in a tough section with AC Milan, Deportivo La Coruna, and Lens.
While Bayern’s attack hasn’t been the issue — they scored 20 goals in the group stage — their defense has let them down. They’ve only kept two clean sheets and conceded goals at home to Dinamo Zagreb and Slovan Bratislava. Their shaky defense almost cost them dearly earlier this month, conceding three late goals to Holstein Kiel in a 4-3 win. However, they bounced back with a 3-0 win over Werder Bremen, maintaining an eight-point lead at the top of the Bundesliga.
Bayern have been dominant against Scottish teams in recent decades, remaining unbeaten in 13 games since their only defeat to Hearts in the 1989 UEFA Cup. They've faced Celtic four times, winning both group-stage meetings in 2017, but the last time they visited Celtic Park in 2003, the game ended in a 0-0 draw.
A 0-0 draw on Wednesday would be a solid result for Celtic, but it may not be enough to advance unless they can win in Munich.
Celtic have never won against Bayern in their history, and their record against past Champions League winners is poor — just one win in 21 games. However, they did secure their first-ever win against a German club in Europe this season, defeating RB Leipzig 3-1 at Celtic Park.
If Celtic are to progress, they’ll need to overcome more history. They’ve lost all three of their previous knockout ties in the Champions League, the most recent being a 5-0 aggregate defeat to Juventus in 2013. Their best efforts in the past came in 2007 and 2008, when they reached the last 16 before being eliminated by AC Milan and Barcelona.
Celtic are heading into this match with plenty of confidence, though. After recent 6-0 and 5-0 wins over Dundee and Raith Rovers, they remain unbeaten at home in Europe this season. Their win over Leipzig helped them finish the group stage with 10 points from their four home games. Celtic will need a heroic performance like their memorable 2012 win over Barcelona if they want any chance of advancing after the second leg.
INJURIES & SUSPENSION
Celtic manager Brendan Rodgers is expected to make several changes for this match, following a heavy rotation in the cup victory over Raith on the weekend. Adam Idah is likely to return, aiming to continue his impressive form, having scored four goals in his last three games.
Daizen Maeda, who netted a hat trick against Raith, will be suspended after receiving a straight red card against Young Boys on matchday seven, so Yang Hyun-jun might get the nod to start in his place.
Jota is still working on regaining his fitness after being out for 18 months, while Paulo Bernardo will join James Forrest on the sidelines after being forced off in the first half against Raith.
For Bayern, Joao Palhinha and Serge Gnabry are both doubts after missing the weekend's win due to illness. Alphonso Davies remains unavailable with a hamstring injury, despite recently signing a contract extension with the club.
Bayern manager Vincent Kompany resisted the urge to rotate his squad on the weekend, opting for a full-strength lineup, which is likely to be very similar here. Harry Kane is expected to lead the attack as he returns to the UK.
Leroy Sane came off the bench to score against Werder Bremen, but it's likely that Michael Olise and Kingsley Coman will start on the wings. Coman, in particular, was the scorer in the last meeting between the two teams over seven years ago.
POSSIBLE LINE-UPS
Celtic possible starting lineup:
Schmeichel; Johnston, Carter-Vickers, Trusty, Taylor; Engels, McGregor, Hatate; Kuhn, Idah, Yang
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Kim, Guerreiro; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Coman, Musiala, Olise; Kane
EXPERT PREDICTION
Celtic 1-2 Bayern Munich
Celtic have been strong at home in Europe this season, securing three wins, but all of those came against teams that were eliminated in the group stage. Bayern Munich, however, will be a much tougher challenge.
Although Bayern lost three of their four away games in the group stage, they’ll still be confident about progressing, even if they suffer a narrow loss here, thanks to their impressive home record. Kompany’s side will be aiming to quiet the passionate Celtic crowd and take a solid advantage into the second leg.
