Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid face off for the second leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie at the Metropolitano on Wednesday night, with Los Blancos holding a 2-1 advantage after a thrilling clash last week.
Brahim Diaz scored the decisive goal for Carlo Ancelotti's team at the Bernabeu last Tuesday, following impressive strikes from Rodrygo and Julian Alvarez in both halves.
Historically, this Champions League fixture has been favorable for Real Madrid, with previous victories in the 2014 and 2016 finals, as well as the 2017 semi-finals. However, Atletico Madrid will take some confidence from their strong home record, having lost just once in their last seven home encounters against their fierce rivals.
In cup competitions, Atletico has remained unbeaten in the last five meetings, winning four of them, and they must secure another win to stand any chance of advancing following last week's loss.
Atletico Madrid has previously overcome a first-leg deficit six times in the Champions League knockout rounds, with three of those comebacks coming at home in the second leg. Last season, manager Diego Simeone's side achieved a similar feat, overturning a one-goal deficit to defeat Inter Milan in the last 16. Atletico’s impressive home form in Europe suggests that Real Madrid will face a tough challenge in this return leg.
Atletico Madrid has not lost a home knockout-stage game in the Champions League for 28 years, going unbeaten in 18 consecutive matches since Ajax's victory at the Vicente Calderon in March 1997.
However, Atletico comes into this match off the back of a disappointing 2-1 loss at Getafe on Sunday, where they allowed Mauro Arambarri’s late brace to hand them their first defeat in 25 encounters with Getafe. This setback saw them slip to third place in La Liga, with Barcelona still a point ahead despite Atletico playing one more game. A loss in this tie would be a major blow to their season.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, will be aware of the challenge ahead, especially with the raucous home crowd behind Atletico Madrid.
Real Madrid has struggled in recent years at Atletico's new home, the Metropolitano. After winning eight straight away games at the Vicente Calderon between 2008 and 2014, they have only managed three victories in 17 attempts since Atletico moved to the Metropolitano.
Furthermore, Real Madrid has never won a European match away at Atletico in three attempts. Despite this, their pedigree in the competition means they remain the favorites, particularly after becoming the first club to play 500 Champions League games and win 300 of them following their victory last week.
Real's recent win also marked their fifth consecutive knockout-stage win in the Champions League and extended their unbeaten streak to 10 games in the knockout rounds for the first time in club history. Los Blancos are also known for finishing the job when leading after the first leg, having advanced 21 times out of 22 when winning the opening match, with their only failure coming against Ajax in 2019. Under Ancelotti, they are 9-0 in such situations.
However, like Atletico, Real Madrid was far from convincing in their weekend match, despite a 2-1 victory over Rayo Vallecano, which put them level on points with Barcelona. Real struggled in the match, with Rayo having more possession and outshooting them 20-10 in a strange game at the Bernabeu on Sunday. That performance should serve as a wake-up call for Ancelotti's side as they prepare for this crucial encounter.
INJURIES & SUSPENSION
After Cesar Azpilicueta made his return to the matchday squad over the weekend, Koke remains the only player unavailable for Atletico Madrid in this upcoming fixture, leaving Diego Simeone with a strong squad to choose from.
In their last match against Getafe, Nahuel Molina and Robin Le Normand were the only two changes from the starting lineup of the first leg. Despite the defeat, both could retain their spots, with the decision between Molina and Pablo Barrios likely determining where Marcos Llorente will be deployed.
Julian Alvarez's stunning strike at the Bernabeu last week marked his seventh goal in nine Champions League appearances this season, making him only the third Atletico player in the 21st century to score in consecutive derbies at the Bernabeu, after Diego Forlan and Antoine Griezmann.
The intense title race meant Carlo Ancelotti fielded a very strong Real Madrid side at the weekend, with Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham, and Rodrygo all starting.
Dani Ceballos is sidelined due to a hamstring injury, joining long-term absentees Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao. However, Antonio Rudiger and Thibaut Courtois, who missed the win over Rayo Vallecano, are expected to be available. Additionally, Federico Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga, and Ferland Mendy were rested but are all expected to return to the starting lineup.
The only likely change for Real Madrid will be the return of Bellingham from suspension, with Brahim Diaz potentially unfortunate to miss out despite his match-winning performance last week.
POSSIBLE LINE-UPS
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Molina, Gimenez, Le Normand, Javi Galan; Simeone, Marcos Llorente, De Paul, Lino; Alvarez, Griezmann
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Mendy; Tchouameni, Camavinga; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vini Jr; Mbappe
EXPERT PREDICTION
Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid
