Real Madrid, despite having to battle through a tough playoff against Manchester City to reach this stage, are still firmly in the hunt for their record-extending 16th European crown. Carlo Ancelotti's side proved their mettle by outsmarting Pep Guardiola's City in a thrilling two-legged tie. After a 3-2 win at the Etihad, they sealed their progression with a dominant 3-1 second-leg victory, thanks in large part to Kylian Mbappe’s stunning hat-trick.
Now, Madrid are unbeaten in their last nine knockout matches in the Champions League, a run that includes their triumphant journey to last year’s final at Wembley. They’ve faced Spanish opposition in the European Cup knockout rounds 11 times before, and only twice have they been eliminated.
However, they’ll head into this game on the back of a disappointing 2-1 loss to Real Betis over the weekend, a result that snapped their three-game winning streak and seven-match unbeaten run. Still, with a near-perfect record at the Bernabeu—eight wins and one draw from their last nine home games—Real will be confident.
Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, are still seeking revenge for their heartbreaking losses to Real in the 2014 and 2016 finals. Despite a shaky performance over the weekend, where they scraped past Athletic Bilbao 1-0, they’ll take some confidence from the result, which put them top of La Liga—at least until Barcelona played Real Sociedad on Sunday. Atletico’s attack has been their main weapon in Europe this season, winning their final five group-stage matches, though their defense hasn’t been as solid.
The big concern for Atletico is their poor away form in the knockout stages, having lost all three of their away games in last season’s Champions League. In contrast, Real Madrid have won all five of their knockout ties with Atletico in the competition.
Historically, Real has consistently knocked Atletico out of Europe, including in the 1958-59, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2016-17 campaigns. However, Atletico have made life difficult for Madrid in recent league encounters, with the last three matches ending in draws, including February’s tense 1-1 stalemate.
INJURIES & SUSPENSION
Jude Bellingham will miss Tuesday’s first leg due to suspension, having picked up his third yellow card of the Champions League campaign in Real Madrid’s home win over Manchester City. This adds to his two-game domestic ban. He joins a growing injury list that includes Eder Militao (knee), Dani Carvajal (knee), Dani Ceballos (hamstring), and Jesus Vallejo (hamstring), all sidelined for this week’s match.
However, Carlo Ancelotti confirmed that Federico Valverde will be available again after dealing with some discomfort, so the versatile Uruguayan could be called upon to replace Lucas Vazquez at right-back. Ancelotti may also opt to bring Raul Asencio into the starting lineup, potentially ahead of David Alaba, as he remains cautious with the injury-prone Austrian.
On Atletico’s side, they’ll be without experienced defender Cesar Azpilicueta, who is sidelined with a leg injury, while long-time captain Koke is also out with a thigh issue. However, Atletico otherwise have a fully-fit squad to choose from for the first leg.
After scoring the winner on Saturday, Julian Alvarez has put his hand up for a starting spot, as well as impressing with six Champions League goals already this season. The former Manchester City forward could see himself replace Alexander Sorloth in the starting XI, while Marcos Llorente, who assisted Alvarez’s decisive strike, will be looking to take Giuliano Simeone’s spot on the right wing.
POSSIBLE LINE-UPS
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Valverde, Rudiger, Asencio, Mendy; Tchouameni, Camavinga; Rodrygo, Diaz, Vinicius; Mbappe
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Gimenez, Galan; Llorente, De Paul, Barrios, Lino; Griezmann, Alvarez
EXPERT PREDICTION
Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid
