Italy will face Belgium on Thursday, needing just one point to secure a spot in the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals as Group 2 of League A nears its end.
The Azzurri only need to avoid defeat at Stade Roi Baudouin to advance, while Belgium faces a must-win scenario after earning just four points so far.
Belgium, still reeling from back-to-back losses to France in their last two Group 2 matches, hoped to finally get the better of Les Bleus in their fourth matchday. But despite an eventful 2-1 loss in Brussels, including a missed penalty by Youri Tielemans and a late goal by Lois Openda, the Red Devils came up short. Randal Kolo Muani's brace proved decisive for France.
Belgium’s only win in the group came in September, a 3-1 victory over Israel on neutral ground. Sitting in third place—five points behind France and six behind Italy—Belgium is now staring down the possibility of a relegation playoff to retain their place in League A. To stay in the hunt for a knockout spot, they need a win on Thursday.
If they succeed, they’ll still have a chance to advance in Sunday’s final match against Israel in Hungary. However, history isn’t on Belgium's side, as they haven't beaten Italy in a competitive fixture since 1972.
Italy, on the other hand, has been impressive in Group 2. Despite a disappointing defense of their European Championship title earlier this year, they’ve thrived under new coach Luciano Spalletti, accumulating 10 points from 12. A draw in Belgium will be enough to secure their place in the quarter-finals.
The Azzurri will be looking to bounce back from a dramatic 2-2 draw with Belgium last month, when they squandered a two-goal lead after Lorenzo Pellegrini was sent off. But despite that setback, Italy remained atop the group, and their 4-1 win over Israel in Udine further solidified their strong position. Giovanni Di Lorenzo netted a surprise brace, and Mateo Retegui, Serie A's top scorer, added a penalty.
Italy has bounced back well since conceding an early goal in their campaign opener against France. Their remarkable comeback win over Les Bleus sparked a turnaround that has seen them adapt to Spalletti’s tactical changes with confidence.
Even if they can’t seal the deal in Belgium, Italy’s final match against France on Sunday at San Siro offers another chance to secure progress. With a squad featuring youthful talent—like Retegui, Alessandro Bastoni, and Sandro Tonali—Italy’s future looks bright under Spalletti’s leadership. Captain Gianluigi Donnarumma, at 25, is practically a veteran in a team full of rising stars.
INJURIES & SUSPENSIONS
Belgium manager Domenico Tedesco, who has Italian and German roots, will be missing several key players this week, though he does welcome back Romelu Lukaku, his all-time leading scorer, after he withdrew last month.
The Belgian injury list includes captain Kevin De Bruyne, Thomas Meunier, Jeremy Doku, Charles De Ketelaere, Youri Tielemans, and Malick Fofana. There are also fitness concerns over Romeo Lavia and Club Brugge left-back Maxim De Cuyper, who scored a stunning goal against Italy in October, despite both reporting for duty.
To fill the gaps, Tedesco has called up a few new faces, including Juventus youngster Samuel Mbangula, Albert Sambi Lokonga, Killian Sardella, and Arthur Vermeeren.
On Italy’s side, the injury issues also continue. Arsenal's Riccardo Calafiori and Torino’s Samuele Ricci are both sidelined, along with long-term absentees Gianluca Scamacca and Giorgio Scalvini, who are not expected to return until 2025.
To replace Ricci, Italy have brought in Manuel Locatelli, who will compete with Lazio's Nicolo Rovella for a midfield spot, alongside Nicolo Barella, Davide Frattesi, and Sandro Tonali. Roma captain Lorenzo Pellegrini has been dropped from the squad.
Up front, Italy has two in-form strikers, Mateo Retegui and Moise Kean, the latter coming off a hat-trick for Fiorentina last week. Both will be hoping to earn the starting spot from coach Luciano Spalletti, who may be cautious about pairing them together against tough opposition.
POSSIBLE LINE -UPS
Belgium possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Castagne, Debast, Faes, Theate; Mangala, Onana, Vermeeren; Bakayoko, Lukaku, Trossard
Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Barella, Locatelli, Tonali, Dimarco; Raspadori; Retegui
EXPERT PREDICTION
Belgium 2-2 Italy
Despite a string of withdrawals and injuries leaving Belgium in a difficult situation, Romelu Lukaku remains a familiar and reliable figure who could once again step up to rescue his team.
For Italy, a draw would be enough to secure their progression, making another stalemate between the two sides the most likely outcome.
