City, last season’s European champions, barely scraped through to the knockout round, needing a comeback win on the final matchday to secure a top-24 finish. Meanwhile, Real Madrid who lifted their record-extending 15th title last year also struggled, finishing just one point outside the top eight after three early losses in the group stage.
Despite City’s unconvincing group-stage run, they enter Tuesday’s showdown as favorites. If you agree with the oddsmakers, Parimatch is offering enhanced odds of 30/1 on a City win, with just a £1 stake required to take part.
City’s Champions League campaign has been far from their dominant best. From September 2022 to April 2024, they went on a remarkable 22-game unbeaten run in Europe. But this season, they’ve looked vulnerable, winning just two of their first seven matches. A shock elimination loomed when Belgian underdogs Club Brugge took the lead at the Etihad in their final group game. However, a 3-1 turnaround spared them an early exit.
Since that narrow escape, Pep Guardiola’s side has struggled for consistency. A 5-1 Premier League thrashing at the hands of Arsenal was followed by an unconvincing 2-1 FA Cup win over third-tier Leyton Orient. But despite these wobbles, City’s recent record isn’t all doom and gloom—seven wins from their last 10 games and goals in 13 straight matches.
Plus, they remain unbeaten at home in 2025, scoring at least three goals in wins over Chelsea, Club Brugge, Salford City, and West Ham. A fifth straight home victory across all competitions would mark their best run at the Etihad since 2023.
Real Madrid have also looked shaky in Europe this season. After losing three of their first five Champions League games, they recovered with wins over Atalanta, Red Bull Salzburg, and Brest to salvage their campaign. But finishing outside the top eight is still an underachievement for the reigning champions.
Since their 3-0 win over Brest, Madrid’s domestic form has been a mixed bag—one win, one draw, and one defeat across La Liga and the Copa del Rey. Their most recent result, a 1-1 draw with city rivals Atletico Madrid, was a frustrating one. Despite dominating the second half, Ancelotti’s side couldn’t find a winner, with Jan Oblak and wasteful finishing proving costly.
That draw, however, was enough to keep Madrid top of La Liga, and they now prepare for their fourth consecutive Champions League showdown with City. After knocking them out on penalties last season, Los Blancos will be eager to repeat history.
INJURIES & SUSPENSION
Manchester City's new signing Nico Gonzalez had a nightmare debut, limping off injured in the first half of Saturday’s FA Cup win after being muscled off the ball in the lead-up to Leyton Orient’s bizarre opening goal.Pep Guardiola couldn’t confirm the severity of the Spaniard’s injury right after the match, but he now joins a growing list of doubts, including Oscar Bobb (leg), Nathan Ake (muscle), Jeremy Doku (unspecified), and Ederson (unspecified). Meanwhile, Rodri remains a long-term absentee with an ACL injury.
On a more positive note for City, Kevin De Bruyne is expected to return to the starting XI after scoring the winner on Saturday. The Belgian is also on the verge of Champions League history, one more goal or assist against Real Madrid will take his tally to nine against them, more than any other player in the competition.
As for Real Madrid, they arrive in Manchester dealing with a defensive crisis. Lucas Vazquez has picked up a fresh hamstring injury and joins an already lengthy injury list featuring Antonio Rudiger (thigh), Dani Carvajal (knee), Eder Militao (knee), and David Alaba (muscle).
Several Madrid players also have to be careful, Jude Bellingham, Luka Modric, Eduardo Camavinga, Endrick, and Aurelien Tchouameni are all one booking away from suspension, as is Carlo Ancelotti himself.
Despite those concerns, Ancelotti won’t be holding anything back. He’ll field his strongest possible lineup at the Etihad, with Tchouameni once again filling in at center-back alongside young prospect Raul Asencio.
POSSIBLE LINE-UPS
Manchester City possible starting lineup:Ederson; Nunes, Akanji, Dias, Gvardiol; Silva, Kovacic; Foden, De Bruyne, Savinho; Haaland
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Valverde, Tchouameni, Asencio, Mendy; Camavinga, Modric; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Junior; Mbappe
EXPERT PREDICTION
Manchester City 1-1 Real Madrid
Manchester City’s performance at Leyton Orient was one to forget, but with Guardiola making plenty of changes, it’s hardly a cause for concern. Back at the Etihad, the Premier League champions have rediscovered their scoring touch, and their winning ways.
With City firing on all cylinders at home, Real Madrid’s injury-ravaged defense could be in for a tough night. But if there’s one thing Ancelotti’s side has proven time and again in Europe, it’s that they never go down without a fight. In what promises to be an exciting first leg, we see the holders heading back to Madrid the happier side after a hard-fought draw.
. Both teams are injury ravaged, but City seems to have a slight edge.
