Didier Deschamps’s team sits second in Group D, trailing the Netherlands on goals scored. Meanwhile, Poland has already finished last in the group and will be disappointed to be the first team eliminated from the competition. France has yet to hit their stride in Germany, with a narrow 1-0 win against Austria and a 0-0 draw against the Netherlands, raising doubts about their potential to win Euro 2024.
Les Bleus were fortunate to secure four points after two games, especially considering the controversial disallowed goal by Xavi Simons on Friday, where Denzel Dumfries was deemed to have interfered with goalkeeper Mike Maignan. Their goalless draw against the Netherlands was France's 12th in Euros and World Cups since 1992, more than any other team in that period.
Criticism of Deschamps's team has grown, particularly from commentators who believe he hasn't maximized the talent at his disposal. It's worth noting that captain and star forward Kylian Mbappe missed the draw against the Netherlands due to a broken nose sustained against Austria.
Despite their underwhelming performances, France can still build on some promising aspects, especially the displays of Theo Hernandez, Mbappe, and N'Golo Kante. France is unbeaten in their last five matches and has won 14 of their last 20.
If France avoids defeat against Poland or if Austria fails to beat the Netherlands, they will secure a top-two finish and advance to the round of 16. France will top the group if they win and the Netherlands do not, but if both teams win or draw, the tiebreaker will be goal difference, followed by goals scored, disciplinary points, and then European Qualifier rankings, where France ranks higher.
Interestingly, if France keeps a clean sheet against Poland, it will be the first time they have conceded zero goals in the group stages of the Euros, surpassing their previous record of one goal set in 2016. It would also mark their eighth qualification from the group stages and potentially their sixth time topping the group in ten attempts.
Poland, on the other hand, has finished fourth in Group D after losing their opening two games against the Netherlands and Austria. They can't surpass Austria, who have a superior head-to-head record after a 3-1 win on Friday.
Manager Michal Probierz faced challenges, with record scorer and appearance holder Robert Lewandowski missing the Netherlands game due to a thigh injury and having limited impact when he came on against Austria. Probierz, who took charge in September 2023, has overseen a period of mostly positive results, winning six out of ten games and experiencing his first loss at Euro 2024.
Poland's early exit continues a trend of disappointing performances at major tournaments. Since 1986, they have only reached the quarter-finals once, at the 2016 European Championship in France. Despite qualifying for the last five Euros, Poland has exited at the group stage four times.
Heading into Tuesday’s match, Poland is on a two-game losing streak but had gone unbeaten in the previous eight games, winning six.
INJURIES & SUSPENSION
Despite sitting out against the Netherlands on Friday, Real Madrid-bound Kylian Mbappe is likely to return to the starting XI after breaking his nose in a collision with Kevin Danso during the Austria game.Manager Didier Deschamps took a cautious approach by benching Mbappe on Friday to aid his recovery, but Mbappe participated in a behind-closed-doors friendly against Paderborn's Under-21s, where he reportedly scored twice and provided two assists.
While Mbappe's return is a boost for France, it presents a selection dilemma for Deschamps, who may need to choose between Adrien Rabiot and Aurelien Tchouameni to make room for the star forward. Tchouameni's importance is clear, as he has averaged the most accurate passes per 90 minutes and ranks second for possession won in the final third among the French squad at Euro 2024.
Rabiot, however, surpasses Tchouameni in final third possession wins per 90 minutes and has been a favorite of Deschamps in recent tournaments. This suggests Rabiot may retain his place, likely playing deeper alongside N'Golo Kante.
Poland faces concerns about center-back Bartosz Salamon, who missed the defeat to Austria due to an ankle injury. Robert Lewandowski is expected to return to the starting lineup, as this could be his last game at a major international tournament.
POSSIBLE LINE-UPS
France possible starting lineup:Maignan; Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez; Kante, Rabiot; Dembele, Griezmann, Thuram; Mbappe
Poland possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; Bednarek, Dawidowicz, Kiwior; Frankowski, Zielinski, Slisz, Moder, Zalewski; Swiderski, Lewandowski
EXPERT PREDICTION
France 2-1 Poland
