Gareth Southgate's squad has secured four points from a possible six, though their performance has been more workmanlike than spectacular. Meanwhile, their opponents are still searching for their first-ever win at a Euros finals.
A stark difference was evident between England's opening match against Serbia and their subsequent clash with Denmark on June 20. While they managed to hold off Serbia after taking an early lead, their passive play against Denmark resulted in a 1-1 draw, highlighted by a stunning 25-yard strike from Morten Hjulmand.
Under the closed roof of the Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, where the pitch conditions were less than ideal, Harry Kane continued his scoring streak in major tournaments.
However, England's overall performance was lackluster, with Phil Foden's near-miss off the woodwork being one of the few bright spots. Captain Kane acknowledged the team’s confusion regarding pressing tactics, reflecting a broader uncertainty within the squad.
Despite the criticism, England's place in the knockout rounds is secure. Results on Monday ensured their progression, thanks to Albania's 1-0 defeat to Spain in Group B, which guaranteed that England would advance at least as one of the best third-placed teams.
A win against Slovenia or a Denmark slip-up against Serbia would secure top spot in the group, avoiding a potential clash with Germany in the first knockout round. Additionally, England has the chance to finish the group stage unbeaten for the fourth consecutive European Championship, a streak dating back to Euro 2000.
On the other side, Slovenia, with only two wins in their last seven matches, will approach Tuesday's game with cautious optimism. They came close to their first Euros victory in their second match against Serbia, only for Luka Jovic to score a late equalizer. Currently tied with Denmark in both head-to-head and goal metrics, Slovenia will advance with a win in Cologne.
Slovenia, unbeaten in their last eight matches with three consecutive 1-1 draws, should not be underestimated. They haven't failed to score in over a year, with their last scoreless match being a 2-0 loss to Finland 14 games ago. However, their record against England is not encouraging, with five losses in six encounters, including a 1-0 defeat at the 2010 World Cup which sent England to the last 16.
Moreover, Slovenia holds the unenviable record of playing the most matches at the European Championships without a win, with four draws and one loss in their attempts.
INJURIES & SUSPENSION
Southgate has mostly sidestepped heavy criticism for his squad selection for the Euros this time, unlike in previous international windows. However, his choice to include the injured Luke Shaw has backfired.Shaw, though back in full training, isn't ready for a competitive return and remains the only enforced absentee. Fans are calling for changes to the starting lineup, and this time, Southgate might heed their pleas.
The experiment with Trent Alexander-Arnold in midfield hasn't worked out, so Conor Gallagher is expected to be brought back into the lineup despite being one booking away from a suspension.
Alternatively, Jude Bellingham could play a deeper role alongside Declan Rice, which would allow Phil Foden to move to a central position and give Anthony Gordon or Eberechi Eze a chance on the left. Kieran Trippier has recovered from a calf issue, and despite Jordan Pickford appearing to hurt his shoulder in training on Monday, he is expected to be fit to play.
For Slovenia, coach Matjaz Kek faced a minor scare with star attacker Benjamin Sesko, who left the Serbia match early due to muscle cramps. Fortunately, Sesko has been training normally and should be ready to lead the attack.
However, there is some concern over goalkeeper Jan Oblak, who missed training on Saturday for undisclosed reasons. Midfielders Timi Max Elsnik and Adam Gnezda Cerin have also been dealing with fitness issues since their second match, leaving their availability uncertain.
Despite the concerns, Oblak, who made crucial saves against Serbia, is likely to start. If Elsnik and Cerin are not fit to play, Jon Gorenc Stankovic is a potential alternative in midfield. Both Elsnik and Cerin have returned to full practice, which bodes well for their participation.
POSSIBLE LINE-UPS
England possible starting lineup:Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guehi, Trippier; Gallagher, Rice; Saka, Bellingham, Foden; Kane
Slovenia possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Karnicnik, Brekalo, Bijol, Janza; Mlakar, Elsnik, Cerin, Stojanovic; Sporar, Sesko
EXPERT PREDICTION
England 2-1 Slovenia
Unexpectedly, Slovenia holds the upper hand going into Tuesday's crucial match against England—a scenario few would have predicted before the tournament began. Breaking down a defense led by Jan Oblak will be a significant challenge for Southgate's tired squad.
However, just as it was in South Africa 14 years ago, a single goal might be all it takes to push the lackluster Three Lions into the last 16 as group winners, even if it doesn't boost confidence for the upcoming games.
